Tasman Tea Export Strategy Thesis
A New Zealand specialty tea producer got a written export-strategy thesis instead of a half-built Shopify store.
Impact
What changed.
Build avoided
The Shopify-plus-paid-acquisition build the agencies had quoted would have consumed the firm's available capital. The thesis surfaced a wholesale-led path with lower capital intensity and higher probability of success.
Wholesale traction
The firm pursued the recommended wholesale-led path into Australia first. Within nine months they had signed seventeen specialty cafe and grocery accounts — without the international ad spend.
Founder clarity
The founder described the engagement as the first time she had felt genuinely informed about her own commercial decision. She has since referred three other founders to us for strategy engagements.
The challenge
Before
Tasman Tea is a New Zealand specialty tea producer with a small but loyal domestic following and a clear interest in extending into export markets through a direct-to-consumer model. They had been quoted by three different agencies for a Shopify build and an international ad campaign — but their founder, to her credit, was uncertain whether the build was actually the right next move. She wanted clarity before spending capital, not a vendor talking her into the build.
- Strong domestic NZ following with limited capacity for export expansion
- Three agency quotes for Shopify build and international ad campaign
- No structured view of which markets would be commercially viable
- Fulfillment economics for international DTC tea unclear
- Brand positioning strong for domestic but untested internationally
- Founder uncertain whether the build was actually the right next move
- Capital available for one bet — needed clarity on which bet
- Competitive landscape in target markets not analyzed structurally
The solution
What we built
We ran a three-week Digital Strategy engagement structured around the actual decision the founder needed to make. Week one was diagnostic — we interviewed the founder and operational lead, reviewed the existing customer base, modeled the unit economics of international fulfillment under several scenarios, and analyzed the competitive landscape in three candidate markets (Australia, Singapore, UK). Week two was scenario work — we tested several go-to-market approaches against the firm's capacity and the unit economics, including the Shopify-plus-paid-acquisition path the agencies had quoted and several alternatives. Week three was thesis writing — a single written document explaining what we thought the firm should do, why, with what evidence, and the no-go alternatives we had ruled out and the reasoning. The deliverable was a 28-page PDF and a Notion workspace, not a build. The founder used it to make a confident decision — which turned out not to be the build any agency had quoted.
Core workflow connections
How the system flows.
- Week OneFounder InterviewsCustomer Base ReviewUnit Economics Modeling
- Competitive LandscapeThree Candidate MarketsStructured Analysis
- Week TwoScenario WorkMultiple GTM Paths Tested
- Capacity MatchUnit EconomicsCapital RequiredRisk Profile
- Week ThreeThesis WritingSingle Written Document
- No-go AlternativesReasoning CapturedFounder Confidence
- Deliverable: 28-page PDF + Notion workspace, not a build
- Honest answer surfaced even when it conflicted with build-side incentives
- Founder-led decision supported by structured evidence
- Decision authority retained by founder throughout
Process
How we built it.
Week One → Founder Interviews → Customer Base Review → Unit Economics Modeling
Competitive Landscape → Three Candidate Markets → Structured Analysis
Week Two → Scenario Work → Multiple GTM Paths Tested
Capacity Match → Unit Economics → Capital Required → Risk Profile
Week Three → Thesis Writing → Single Written Document
No-go Alternatives → Reasoning Captured → Founder Confidence
Deliverable: 28-page PDF + Notion workspace, not a build
Honest answer surfaced even when it conflicted with build-side incentives
Founder-led decision supported by structured evidence
Decision authority retained by founder throughout
Start a project
About to spend capital on a build you are not sure about?
Our Digital Strategy engagements deliver written theses — even when the honest answer is "do not build it." Clarity is usually worth more than the build itself.
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